Intuitively I knew it, but I was still shocked. That was my reaction when I got an email from my neighbour John saying McCauley’s population decreased by over 1,000 residents between the 2016 and 2021 censuses. 

McCauley’s population decline isn’t new. According to Canada Census data, there were 6,955 residents in 1971. Fifty years later, in 2021, the population was 3,355. That’s a decline of over 50%. Over the past 10 years (2011-2021), our neighbourhood population has decreased by 33%. There is no evidence this decline won’t continue. 

The federal government releases a census report every five years, with the next report due in 2026. Collecting personal information from people for research purposes is never easy and the census process has flaws and misses people. This is particularly true in low-income neighbourhoods like McCauley.

But the census report provides the best and most comprehensive data we have. The key is to look at trends over time rather than at a particular finding in a specific year.  

For each census, the City of Edmonton provides a report on the results for each neighbourhood in Edmonton called Neighbourhood Profiles_Federal Census. The report for 2021 can be found at https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/city.of.edmonton/viz/NeighbourhoodProfiles_FederalCensus2021/PopulationbyAgeandGender

Not only are there fewer residents in McCauley, but we tend to be older. 

Compared to the entire city, McCauley has fewer children and youth, and more pre-retirement and people over 65. In 2021, there were 10% fewer children and youth in McCauley than in the city. But McCauley has significantly more older adults: 37.1% of residents are 55 years and older compared to 24.7% for Edmonton. The results in 2016 were 32.9% in McCauley and 23.8% in Edmonton. This aging trend is unlikely to be reversed anytime soon. 

Consistent with the aging trend, there are fewer families in McCauley. The number of families decreased by about 6% in 2021 compared with 2016.  In real terms, the number of families decreased from 710 to 665.

This decline in families may be linked to such factors as the closure of schools and parents' concerns about safety in the neighbourhood. What’s the long-term impact of this decline in families? If we can’t open new schools, how else might we attract families to McCauley? What’s the impact of these trends on local businesses?

We need to explore and better understand what’s behind these trends that are hurting our neighbourhood. Then we can come together to take action to address these negative trends and build the community we want.

Phil O’Hara is a long-time McCauley resident and was research and policy analysis coordinator with the Edmonton Social Planning Council.